An Estimated Model of a Commodity-Exporting Economy for the Integrated Policy Framework: Evidence from Mongolia

The Graduate Institute of International Studies

Gan-Ochir Doojav and Munkhbayar Gantumur

E32, E43, F41, C11, C32, E52

Bayesian analysis, Capital flow management, External shocks, Fiscal policy, Foreign exchange intervention, Macroprudential policy, Open economy macroeconomics, Optimal policy mix, Monetary policy

This paper develops an estimated New Keynesian model of a commodity-exporting economy for an integrated policy framework, integrating the full range of policies used in practice and featuring a range of nominal and real rigidities, macro-financial linkages, and transmission channels of external shocks. We jointly examine the optimal conduct of conventional and unconventional monetary policies, macroprudential policy, foreign exchange intervention, capital flow management, and fiscal policy based on the model. The policy analysis framework is applied empirically to Mongolia, a small open, and developing economy highly dependent on imports and commodity exports. We find that an eclectic policy mix improves policy tradeoffs, and a lack of cooperation among policy authorities may result in conflicting policies, hence suboptimal results for overall economic stability. Our optimal policy analysis shows that policy mix adjustments should differ depending on the type of shocks and the policy objectives. The results suggest that the policy analysis framework can help policymakers choose their policy mix adjustments to deal with external shocks in an integrated and optimal way.